New housing supply capacity report for Dublin shows shortfall of 9,000 units over next five years

A new report focusing on the housing supply capacity situation in Dublin has found that there is 2,233 hectares of land zoned and potentially available for residential development in the four main local authority areas.

According to the report, which was commissioned by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland, this land could deliver over 100,000 additional housing units and provide housing for approximately 269,000 people.

However the report, which is the first to map actual planning permissions and residential zoned land in Dublin, found a serious shortfall in the number of planning permissions required to meet the number of required units over the next five years.

The report, which was produced by Future Analytics Consulting for SCSI, found there is a minimum housing unit requirement of over 35,000 units in Dublin for the years 2014-2018.  At the moment there is only granted planning permissions for some 26,000 units resulting in a shortfall of a minimum of 9,000 units.

The four local authorities

A breakdown of these figures shows that the Dublin City Council area is worst affected. While there is a minimum housing requirement of approximately 14,000 units in Dublin City, planning permissions have only been granted for some 1,300 units. This means that there could be a unit shortfall of up to 91% in this area over the next 5 years.

In the South Dublin County Council area there is a minimum housing requirement of close to 9,000 units but planning permission has only been granted for 4,200 units, leaving a 52% unit shortfall.

The situation in the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council area appears much healthier. While there is a minimum housing requirement of 3,300 units, planning permission exists for some 4,200 units, giving a 28% unit surplus.

While in Fingal County Council where there is over 1,000 hectares of zoned land potentially available the minimum housing requirement is 9,600 units but planning permission has been granted for almost 17,000 units, a 75% unit surplus.

Analysis

Simon Stokes, the Chair of the Residential Agency Group of the SCSI said while the figures showed there was ample land zoned residential for new housing in the Dublin City Council area as a whole, the shortfall in planning permissions in the Dublin City Council area needed to be addressed as a matter of urgency.

“This new SCSI study provides further evidence for the need to start building new homes in Dublin to address the housing supply shortage and ease the pace of property price inflation. The situation in the Dublin City Council is critical while the situation in South Dublin County Council is very serious. It’s clear these are the two areas which require urgent attention.

We need more developers and builders to work with the local authorities to begin more new developments in these areas and to increase the number of planning permissions where demand exists.

For this to happen, we need to improve levels of availability of development finance, provide upfront infrastructure and ensure a streamlined planning process – measures contained within the Government’s Construction 2020 Strategy”.

William Hynes, MD of Future Analytics Consulting said “Given the lack of mobility in the current market it is clear that new housing will have an increasingly important role to play in satisfying the growing demand in the housing market and in ensuring affordability remains at reasonable level.”

Viewer

The SCSI also launched a new ‘online ’ to map actual planning permissions and zoned lands across Dublin. This will be a very useful resource not just for prospective buyers and residents but also for builders, developers and planners. You can view the report/maps at www.scsi.ie